Why Spotify (SPOT) Stock Is Soaring Today
Spotify soared 11.1% on Thursday after forecasting €820 million of fourth-quarter operating income, above the €813.4 million analysts expected, and beating its subscriber goal.
What happened
Shares of Spotify (SPOT), the Swedish music-streaming company, soared 11.1% on Thursday after it forecast fourth-quarter profit above Wall Street’s expectations and signed up more paying subscribers than it had promised. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% on the same day.
Spotify expects operating income of €820 million in the fourth quarter, against analysts’ average estimate of €813.4 million, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. It also forecast 316 million premium subscribers by the end of the year, up from 306 million at the end of September. That third-quarter figure was 9% higher than a year earlier and 1 million above the company’s own guidance, Spotify said in its results release.
Third-quarter revenue rose 16% from a year earlier to €4.97 billion, slightly below the €4.98 billion LSEG estimate cited by Reuters. Operating income was €672 million, just above the €670 million Spotify had guided to. The shares closed at $583.66, up 11.1% from the previous close.
Why it matters
The rally was a bet that AI is helping Spotify rather than hurting it. Reuters reported that the company’s AI-powered features were starting to pay off. “We have admittedly been too cautious on AI’s near-term impact, and the results show no damage so far,” Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeff Wlodarczak said, according to Reuters.
Advertising, the smaller part of the business, also grew: ad-supported revenue rose 10% to €482 million, or 9% at constant currency.
Not every line beat. Diluted earnings per share of €2.48 fell short of the roughly €2.80 analysts expected, according to Reuters and Invezz. TIKR traced the gap to items below operating income: net finance income fell to €33 million from €245 million a year earlier, the release shows.
What the market is telling us
Spotify’s shares moved 5% or more on 14 of the last 252 sessions. The last move at least this big in the same direction was on 21 May 2026, when the stock rose 13.1%. The stock is up 0.5% this year, and at $583.66 it sits 13.6% below its 52-week closing high of $675.62 from 22 October 2025.
Our view: one session erased a 9.5% loss for the year on a profit forecast less than 1% above estimates, so Spotify now has to land the fourth quarter where it says it will.
Follow Spotify
Its stories collect under My stocks on the front page. For the daily email, subscribe to the newsletter.
Mostly Markets is for information and education only and isn't investment advice. Marcus Lindqvist is a pen name. Prices are from Nasdaq and CNBC as of the time stated.
