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The 10-Year Treasury Yield Has Spent Six Weeks Around 5%, a Level Last Seen in 2007

The 10-year closed at 5.05% on Wednesday after the Fed held rates. It has finished at 5% or higher on 26 of the last 31 trading days and peaked at 5.31%, the highest since 2002.

Nora Whitfield··1 min read
Papers and a pen on a desk
Papers and a pen on a desk. Image: AI-generated.
The 10-year has closed at 5% or higher on 26 of the last 31 trading days10-year Treasury yield at each day's close, %, 1 September to 28 October 2026
4.8%5.0%5.2%1 Sep10 Sep18 Sep28 Sep6 Oct15 Oct23 Oct10-year yield5% mark5.0%4.8%5.0%5.2%1 Sep16 Sep30 Sep15 Oct10-year yield5% mark5.0%
Source: US Treasury daily par yield curve rates; matches Federal Reserve H.15 data on FRED (DGS10)

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.05% on Wednesday, up from 4.99% on Tuesday, according to the Treasury’s daily yield-curve data. That came after the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a hike.

The yield began the year at 4.19%. It first closed above 5% on 16 September, for the first time since July 2007, and peaked at 5.31% on 5 October, its highest close since May 2002. Since 15 September it has finished at 5% or higher on 26 of 31 trading days.

The 10-year sets the tone for mortgage rates, and it is the safe return that every stock’s earnings get measured against. At 5%, a Treasury pays more than the free-cash-flow yield of many big stocks: Meta’s was 1.8% at Monday’s close, by our count.

What to watch: the Fed’s next meeting, on 8 and 9 December.

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Mostly Markets is for information and education only and isn't investment advice. Nora Whitfield is a pen name. Prices are from Nasdaq and CNBC as of the time stated.