AbbVie (ABBV) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What to Watch

AbbVie (ABBV) reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Friday, 30 October, with a call at 9 a.m. ET. The drugmaker goes in with its stock at a 52-week high.

Last quarter was a beat with a catch. Revenue rose 10.2% from a year earlier to $16.99 billion, above the $16.77 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters, and adjusted EPS of $3.65 topped the $3.60 forecast. But AbbVie trimmed its full-year profit forecast to $13.87 to $14.07 a share to absorb its purchase of Apogee Therapeutics, and the stock fell 2.5% on 31 July.

What analysts expect

Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $3.74, according to Nasdaq’s earnings calendar, which counts five estimates. Zacks’s consensus, reported by Yahoo Finance on 22 October, was $3.79, on revenue of $17.37 billion, up 10.1% from $15.78 billion a year ago.

Profit looks set to double, but that’s mostly an easy comparison. A year ago adjusted EPS was $1.86, after a $1.50-a-share charge for acquired IPR&D and milestones, the money AbbVie pays to license or buy drugs still in development.

The company has already moved its own target. In a 5 October filing it said the quarter will carry $216 million of those charges, an 11-cent hit, and put adjusted EPS at $3.73 to $3.77. It cut the full-year range by the same 11 cents, to $13.76 to $13.96. The $3.74 consensus sits inside that range, and the $3.79 sits above its top.

What to watch

• Skyrizi and Rinvoq. AbbVie’s two biggest drugs, both for immune diseases, each grew about 24% last quarter, to $5.51 billion and $2.53 billion, and both beat estimates. They “will continue to perform well and drive strong revenue growth,” William Blair analyst Matt Phipps said in July, according to Reuters.
• Humira’s slide. Sales of the old blockbuster fell 35.9% in the second quarter, to $756 million.
• Aesthetics. Sales of Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm fillers and the rest rose just 0.3% last quarter, and fell 0.9% excluding currency moves. Juvederm was down 6.0%.

Beyond the drugs, the question is the full-year range. Investors will want to know whether AbbVie raises it or holds it after the Apogee deal and October’s charge.

How the stock has done

AbbVie rose 1.7% on Thursday to close at $290.79, its highest close in 52 weeks. The stock is up 27.3% this year and 11.2% over the past month. It has gained 15.9% since the close on the day of its last report, by our count, so a lot of good news may already be in the price.