What to Expect From Palantir's (PLTR) Q3 Earnings

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, 2 November, with a webcast at 5 p.m. ET, the company said on 12 October.

Last quarter it blew past expectations. Revenue rose 93% from a year earlier to $1.935 billion, and adjusted EPS of 41 cents beat the 34 cents analysts expected, according to Investing.com, which didn’t name its data provider. US commercial revenue, from companies rather than governments, jumped 149% to $764 million. Palantir raised its full-year revenue forecast to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion, above the $7.72 billion analysts had expected, by Investing.com’s count. The stock soared 29.5% on 4 August.

What analysts expect

Analysts expect revenue of $2.17 billion, up 84% from $1.18 billion a year ago, and adjusted EPS of 41 cents, up from 21 cents, according to Zacks via Yahoo Finance. The average of 24 analysts on Yahoo Finance, which doesn’t name its data provider, is $2.18 billion and also 41 cents.

Both revenue figures sit above Palantir’s own forecast of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion. In other words, the market is already counting on a beat, as it got last time. Palantir also guided to adjusted operating income of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion.

What to watch

• US commercial growth. Oppenheimer expects it to top 140% again, with government revenue up more than 65%, and sees another revenue beat and another raise to the annual forecast, MT Newswires reported.
• The full-year forecast. Palantir raised it last quarter, to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. Oppenheimer is looking for another lift, and the size of it may matter more than the quarter.
• Government contracts and the price. RBC Capital, which rates the stock Underperform, said its tracker of government contract awards points to potential softness from the second quarter. It calls Palantir “the most expensive stock across its All-SaaS coverage universe.”

How the stock has done

Palantir slipped 0.2% on Thursday to $196.42. The stock is up 10.5% this year and 5.0% over the past month, and it sits 6.0% below its 52-week closing high of $209.05 from 9 October. It has risen 20.8% since its jump on 4 August, by our count. It has moved 5% or more on 37 of the last 252 sessions, so a big swing on Tuesday would be nothing new.