What to Expect From Apple's (AAPL) Q4 Earnings

Apple (AAPL) reports results for its fiscal fourth quarter, the three months to 26 September, after the market closes on Monday, 2 November. The release is due at 4:30 p.m. ET, with the call at 5 p.m. ET. It will be the first results call for John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook as chief executive on 1 September.

Last quarter was Apple’s best June quarter ever. Revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion, and diluted EPS rose 29% to $2.02, including 11 cents from tariff refunds. Adjusted for one-time gains, EPS was $1.91, above the $1.88 analysts expected, according to Zacks data cited by the AP.

But Apple forecast growth of 9% to 11% for the September quarter, short of the roughly 12% Wall Street wanted, Reuters reported, and Services grew more slowly than expected. The stock sank 7.4% on 31 July, its worst day since April 2025, by our count.

What analysts expect

Analysts expect revenue of $112.95 billion, up 10.2% from $102.47 billion a year ago, and adjusted EPS of $1.98, up from $1.85, according to Zacks via Yahoo Finance. Yahoo Finance’s average of 25 analysts, which doesn’t name its data provider, is a little higher on sales, at $113.32 billion, and also $1.98 a share.

That sits in the upper half of Apple’s own range. Its 9% to 11% forecast works out to $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion, MacRumors calculated. Apple also guided to a gross margin of 47% to 48%, including about 1 percentage point from tariff refunds.

What to watch

• The iPhone. Apple expects iPhone revenue to grow by a mid-teens percentage. Only the first nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales, from 18 September, fall in this quarter. The foldable iPhone Duo, which went on sale on 23 October from $1,999, will show up in the forecast for the holiday quarter instead.
• Memory costs. Cook said in July that Apple expected “to pay even higher memory costs” in the September quarter, and he called its supply constraints “very significant.” “We estimate the memory cost would rise further,” Jefferies analyst Edison Lee wrote, and he sees iPhone gross margin possibly falling to 34.5% from 38%. Watch how much of the margin comes from one-time tariff refunds.
• Services. Apple’s App Store, iCloud and other services brought in $30.7 billion last quarter, short of the $31.3 billion analysts expected, Yahoo Finance reported, without naming its source. Apple expects growth similar to the June quarter’s.

How the stock has done

Apple rose 1.5% on Thursday to $348.91, a record close by our count, above the $348.22 of 22 October. The stock is up 28.3% this year and 4.8% over the past month, and it has gained 12.9% since its close on 31 July, the day after its last report. It has moved 5% or more on only 3 of the last 252 sessions.